1. Executive Summary

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Industry Overview (Macro + Sector-Specific)

The Cold-Pressed Juice / Wellness Beverage industry sits within the broader Better-For-You (BFY) and Functional Beverage market, a category that has structurally outperformed traditional carbonated soft drinks and mainstream beverages over the past decade. Growth is driven by evolving consumer preferences toward health, functionality, clean ingredients, and lifestyle alignment, particularly among Millennials and Gen Z.

From a macro perspective:

• Health & wellness remains a durable secular theme, despite near-term consumer trade-down behavior driven by inflation.
  
  
• Beverage incumbents face long-term volume pressure in legacy categories, incentivizing portfolio diversification via acquisition.
  
  
• Refrigerated and functional beverages command premium shelf space but face higher complexity due to cold-chain logistics, shelf-life constraints, and retailer margin requirements.
  
  

Sector-specific dynamics for cold-pressed and adjacent wellness beverages include:

• Emphasis on functional benefits (gut health, hydration, immunity, protein, energy).
  
  
• Migration from niche juice cleanses toward daily-use functional SKUs.
  
  
• Increasing regulatory and litigation scrutiny around health claims, pushing acquirers to favor brands with defensible formulations and substantiated benefits.
  
  
• Economics that favor scale and platform strategies, particularly in refrigerated distribution.
  
  

While pure-play cold-pressed juice has matured relative to its early-2010s peak, the category remains strategically relevant as part of broader wellness beverage portfolios, often bundled with smoothies, kombucha, protein shakes, or functional sodas.

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Recent M&A Momentum (Deal Count, Value)

M&A activity in the last 18–24 months has been robust but selective, with capital concentrating around scaled wellness brands rather than early-stage concepts. Key observations:

• Strategic buyers dominate headline transactions, deploying capital to acquire high-growth functional brands that fill portfolio gaps.
  
  
• Private equity sponsors are active primarily through platform roll-ups, particularly in refrigerated or premium functional beverages.
  
  
• Deal volume is steady, but deal values are increasingly skewed toward a small number of large transactions, reflecting a “winner-takes-more” dynamic.
  
  

Recent activity suggests:

• Strong appetite for brands with proven velocity, national distribution, and repeat consumption.
  
  
• Lower tolerance for subscale brands with weak margins or unclear regulatory positioning.
  
  
• Continued use of staged acquisitions, earnouts, or minority-to-control structures to manage category volatility.
  
  

Overall, the wellness beverage M&A market is best characterized as strategically important but disciplined, with buyers prioritizing quality, scalability, and defensibility over pure growth narratives.

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High-Level Multiples & Key Trends

While transaction-level multiples are often undisclosed, market evidence indicates:

• Valuation dispersion is wide, driven primarily by growth durability, gross margin profile, and brand strength.
  
  
• Scaled, fast-growing wellness brands can command premium EV/Revenue outcomes, particularly when strategic synergies are evident.
  
  
• Public beverage valuations have generally traded below the broader equity market, but best-in-class functional names continue to attract premium strategic interest.
  
  

Key valuation and deal trends include:

• Increasing focus on unit economics and margin trajectory, not just top-line growth.
  
  
• Greater diligence around claims substantiation, labeling, and litigation exposure.
  
  
• Buyers underwriting value creation through distribution leverage, procurement efficiencies, and shared cold-chain infrastructure, rather than cost-cutting alone.
  
  

For cold-pressed and refrigerated beverages specifically, valuation is heavily influenced by the path to sustainable margins, given higher logistics and spoilage costs relative to ambient beverages.

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Major Players / Consolidators

The current M&A landscape is shaped by a mix of global strategics and sponsor-backed platforms:

Strategic Acquirers

• Large beverage companies pursuing portfolio modernization and functional adjacencies.
  
  
• Focused on brands that can scale quickly through existing distribution networks.
  
  
• Often willing to pay premium valuations for category leadership and cultural relevance.
  
  

Private Equity Platforms

• Emphasizing buy-and-build strategies in refrigerated and premium functional beverages.
  
  
• Targeting opportunities to optimize manufacturing, logistics, and retailer execution across multiple brands.
  
  
• More selective on entry valuation, with clear expectations around margin expansion and exit optionality.
  
  

These players collectively reinforce a market structure where scale, brand credibility, and operational leverage are the primary determinants of M&A relevance.

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Summary of Key Metrics

2. Industry M&A Market Overview

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Deal Activity Trends (Y/Y and Q/Q)

M&A activity across Cold-Pressed Juice and Adjacent Wellness Beverages has remained active but uneven, reflecting a bifurcated market where capital concentrates around scaled, high-velocity brands while subscale assets face a higher bar for transactability.

Year-over-year trends

• 2024–2025 activity rebounded modestly from the 2022–2023 slowdown, supported by stabilizing inflation, improved capital markets sentiment, and strategic urgency among large beverage incumbents.
  
  
• Deal count has remained relatively steady, but aggregate deal value is increasingly concentrated in a small number of large transactions, particularly within functional soda, energy, and lifestyle wellness brands.
  
  
• Pure-play cold-pressed juice acquisitions are less frequent on a standalone basis, but continue to transact as part of broader refrigerated or functional beverage portfolios.
  
  

Quarter-over-quarter dynamics

• Activity tends to cluster around strategic planning cycles, with transaction announcements often weighted toward Q1–Q2.
  
  
• Q/Q volatility is driven less by volume swings and more by the timing of individual large transactions, given the category’s reliance on strategic buyers rather than financial sponsors executing numerous small deals.
  
  

Overall, the market is best characterized as selectively active: buyers are willing to transact, but only where brand strength, velocity, and scalability are clearly demonstrated.

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Notable Megadeals and Headline Transactions

While the cold-pressed juice subsegment itself has not produced many true “megadeals,” the broader wellness beverage ecosystem has seen several large, strategically meaningful transactions that set valuation and appetite benchmarks for the category:

• Large strategics have deployed multi-billion-dollar capital into functional beverage adjacencies (e.g., prebiotic soda, wellness energy, protein-forward brands), reinforcing long-term conviction in health-driven beverage consumption.
  
  
• These transactions signal that scaled wellness brands with strong consumer resonance can still command premium outcomes, even in a more disciplined valuation environment.
  
  
• Importantly, many of these headline deals involve brands adjacent to cold-pressed juice rather than traditional juice cleanses, highlighting the market’s shift toward daily-use, function-led formats.
  
  

For cold-pressed juice assets, these megadeals function as valuation reference points rather than direct comparables, influencing buyer expectations around growth, margin potential, and brand defensibility.

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Private Equity vs. Strategic Acquirer Share

The buyer universe in cold-pressed and wellness beverages is highly segmented, with clear distinctions between strategic and financial sponsor behavior.

Strategic Acquirers

• Account for the majority of total deal value, particularly in larger transactions.
  
  
• Primary motivations include:
  
  
  
  • Portfolio diversification into wellness and functional growth vectors
    
    
  • Leveraging existing distribution, bottling, and procurement infrastructure
    
    
  • Acquiring brands with strong cultural relevance and consumer loyalty
    
    
• Strategics are often willing to pay higher headline valuations where synergies and strategic fit are compelling.
  
  

Private Equity Sponsors

• More active in platform and roll-up strategies, particularly in refrigerated or premium functional beverages.
  
  
• Focused on:
  
  
  
  • Building scale across multiple brands
    
    
  • Optimizing cold-chain logistics and manufacturing utilization
    
    
  • Professionalizing go-to-market execution
    
    
• PE buyers tend to be more valuation-disciplined and frequently structure deals with earnouts or minority-to-control pathways.
  
  

As a result, strategics dominate large, branded acquisitions, while PE drives consolidation at the platform level.

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Capital Availability and Financing Environment

Despite higher interest rates relative to the 2020–2021 period, capital availability for wellness beverage M&A remains constructive:

• Strategic buyers continue to fund acquisitions primarily with balance sheet cash and equity, reducing sensitivity to debt market volatility.
  
  
• Private equity capital remains available for high-quality platforms, though underwriting assumptions have shifted toward:
  
  
  
  • More conservative leverage
    
    
  • Greater emphasis on cash flow durability
    
    
  • Clear visibility into margin expansion
    
    

For cold-pressed juice and refrigerated beverages specifically:

• Financing appetite is strongest where assets demonstrate pathways to margin improvement despite structurally higher logistics costs.
  
  
• Brands with persistent negative EBITDA or unclear scale economics face limited access to both strategic and sponsor capital.

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M&A Volume/Value by Year

3. Valuation Multiples & Comps

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Median EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA by sub-sector

Because cold-pressed juice is largely private and many deals do not disclose full financials, valuation work in this sector is typically triangulated using:

1. Public market trading comps (functional beverage / broader beverage universe)
   
   
2. Precedent transactions (often with disclosed headline EV, sometimes with sales/EBITDA references)
   
   
3. Unit economics underwriting (velocity, gross margin durability, cold-chain costs, promo intensity)
   
   

How multiples behave by wellness sub-sector (directional)

• Refrigerated / cold-pressed / fresh functional: valuations hinge on gross margin path and cold-chain efficiency; buyers tend to pay up only when scale economics are credible.
  
  
• Functional soda / gut health adjacency: can command premium outcomes when the brand has strong cultural momentum and repeat, but diligence is increasingly focused on claims substantiation and marketing risk.
  
  
• Energy / performance lifestyle: strategic appetite has been strong, and large transactions have set high value benchmarks (often with structured consideration).
  
  
• Protein RTD / “better-for-you” shakes: can clear attractive multiples when there’s strong distribution fit + synergy path.
  
  

Anchor precedent datapoint (disclosed multiple): OWYN

• Simply Good Foods’ $280M acquisition of OWYN referenced a purchase price multiple of ~2.3x estimated net sales and ~13.3x estimated Adjusted EBITDA (including run-rate synergies) in the company’s filed materials. (SEC, GlobeNewswire)

Practical takeaway: in this space, EV/Revenue is often used for early-stage / high-growth brands, while EV/EBITDA becomes the gating metric once margin durability is visible (or when synergy-adjusted EBITDA is credible).

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Historical multiple ranges (3–5 year view)

Trading environment (context):

• Peakstone’s Food & Beverage industry report shows a Beverage Products Index EV/EBITDA of ~14.8x vs. S&P 500 ~17.4x as of December 31, 2024, and includes an EV/EBITDA trend chart for 2014–2024 to illustrate the post-2021 compression and subsequent stabilization. (peakstonegroup.com)
  
  

Broader market comparator (sector-level EV/EBITDA):

• Siblis Research’s large-cap U.S. sector table shows Consumer Staples EV/EBITDA ~17.33x (6/30/2025), with historical points back through 12/31/2022 (useful for a ~3-year time series reference). (Siblis Research)
  
  

Interpretation for cold-pressed / wellness bev valuations:

• When public-market multiples compress, buyers typically tighten underwriting and rely more heavily on:
  
  
  
  • clear velocity + repeat
    
    
  • margin proof (or synergy-adjusted margin proof)
    
    
  • defensible functional claims (risk-adjusted)
    
    

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Comparison to S&P 500 / related industries

For “market framing” in an IB-style report, a clean comparison is:

• Beverage index EV/EBITDA vs. S&P 500 EV/EBITDA (Peakstone), and
  
  
• Consumer Staples sector EV/EBITDA trend (Siblis) as a broader “home sector” for many beverage companies.
  
  

As of 12/31/2024, Peakstone indicates:

• Beverage Products Index: ~14.8x EV/EBITDA
  
  
• S&P 500: ~17.4x EV/EBITDA (peakstonegroup.com)

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Historical Valuation Multiples

Peer Multiples & Financials

4. Top Strategic Acquirers & Investors

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List of Top 10–20 Active Acquirers / Investors (last 12–24 months)

Below are the most relevant strategic acquirers and sponsor-backed platforms actively deploying capital into Cold-Pressed Juice / Refrigerated Functional and the broader Wellness Beverage ecosystem (functional soda, energy/wellness, kombucha, specialized nutrition).

Strategic acquirers (corporates)

1. PepsiCo — acquiring poppi (prebiotic soda), and also deepening its strategic partnership with Celsius (convertible preferred investment; distribution integration for Alani Nu). (PepsiCo, Reuters, PepsiCo)
2. Celsius Holdings — acquiring Alani Nu to build a “better-for-you functional lifestyle platform.” (Celsius Holdings, Reuters)
3. Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) — acquiring GHOST with a staged ownership structure (majority now; path to full ownership later). (Media | Keurig Dr Pepper, CSP Daily News)
4. Danone — acquiring a majority stake in Kate Farms to expand U.S. specialized nutrition (medical + everyday). (Reuters, GlobeNewswire)
5. Simply Good Foods — acquiring and completing the purchase of OWYN, including disclosed valuation multiples (EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA incl. synergies). (GlobeNewswire, GlobeNewswire)

Private equity / platform consolidators

6. Butterfly (via Generous Brands platform) — building a premium refrigerated beverage platform spanning Bolthouse Farms, Evolution Fresh (cold-pressed juice), Health-Ade, and others. (Business Wire, Food Dive, Bfly) 
7. Generous Brands (Butterfly portfolio company) — acquiring Health-Ade Kombucha to expand refrigerated functional scale. (Business Wire, Food Dive)
8. Gryphon Investors — acquiring a majority stake in Spindrift (sparkling water with real fruit), reflecting sponsor appetite for scaled “clean label” beverage platforms. (Gryphon Investors, Food Dive)

Strategic (adjacent) category consolidators

9. Suja Life — acquiring Slice (BFY soda) to expand beyond juice into the “health soda / gut health” adjacency. (Business Wire, Food Manufacturing, Food Dive)
10. AB InBev (Beyond Beer) — acquiring BeatBox (RTD), illustrating continued corporate appetite for “adjacent” ready-to-drink platforms (less directly cold-pressed, but relevant to broader on-the-go beverage M&A). (Reuters, CSP Daily News)

Read-through for cold-pressed juice: Pure-play cold-pressed targets often transact inside refrigerated platforms (manufacturing + cold-chain + retailer execution), rather than as standalone single-brand megadeals—hence the significance of the Generous Brands / Evolution Fresh / Bolthouse ecosystem. (Food Dive, Bfly)

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Investment Theses (Why They’re Acquiring)

Strategic buyers

Strategics are using M&A to modernize portfolios toward consumer-preferred spaces (functional, “better-for-you,” low sugar), and to leverage existing distribution and route-to-market advantages:

• Portfolio gap-fill into functional (e.g., prebiotic soda, wellness energy). (PepsiCo, Celsius Holdings, Media | Keurig Dr Pepper)
• Distribution leverage and scale synergies: moving acquired brands into established systems (e.g., PepsiCo distribution integration for Alani Nu through its partnership framework). (PepsiCo, Reuters)
• Option-value structures where category volatility is high (e.g., staged acquisitions / earnouts). (CSP Daily News, PepsiCo)

Private equity platforms

Sponsors are focusing on platform economics—acquiring/combining assets where shared capabilities drive outsize value creation:

• Refrigerated/cold-chain scale: shared manufacturing, procurement, and logistics across multiple brands (Bolthouse / Evolution Fresh / Health-Ade under a unified platform). (Food Dive, Bfly, Business Wire)
  
  
• Buy-and-build playbooks: expand adjacency set, improve utilization, professionalize go-to-market, then exit as a scaled strategic asset. (Food Dive, Bfly)

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PE Platforms and Roll-Up Strategies (What “Roll-Up” Looks Like Here)

A common roll-up structure in refrigerated / wellness beverages:

1. Establish a core platform with manufacturing + cold-chain footprint (or a premier brand + co-man network)
   
   
2. Add adjacent brands in refrigerated functional (cold-pressed juice, kombucha, protein smoothies/shakes)
   
   
3. Drive value through:
   
   
   
   • shared distribution relationships
     
     
   • procurement scale
     
     
   • plant utilization
     
     
   • unified innovation pipeline
     
     

Example platform signal: Generous Brands explicitly positions itself around premium refrigerated beverages and lists Evolution Fresh (cold-pressed juice) as part of its brand family, reinforcing why this platform matters to cold-pressed adjacency M&A. (Food Dive, Bfly)

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Logo Grid: Active Acquirers

Logo Grid: Active Acquirers

Cold-Pressed Juice / Wellness Beverage – acquirers and investors (illustrative set).

Note: Embedded as a base64 PNG for portability. Ensure you have rights/permissions to use any third-party trademarks/logos in your publication.

Deals by Acquirer, Value, Rationale

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5. Transaction Case Studies

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Case Study 1 — PepsiCo → Poppi (Functional “Prebiotic” Soda)

Deal overview

• Announced: March 17, 2025
• Buyer / Target: PepsiCo / Poppi
• Deal size: $1.95B headline value (PepsiCo indicated the net purchase price is lower after expected tax benefits; potential earnout components discussed in coverage)
• Primary source:
  
  • PepsiCo press release: https://www.pepsico.com/our-stories/press-release/pepsico-to-acquire-poppi-03172025 
  • AP News coverage: https://apnews.com/article/pepsico-poppi-prebiotic-soda-acquisition-2025 

Strategic rationale

• Accelerates PepsiCo’s push into better-for-you / functional beverages as traditional CSD volumes face secular pressure.
• Leverages PepsiCo’s global distribution and retail relationships to scale a culturally resonant brand.

Multiple paid

• Not publicly disclosed (typical for private, founder-led beverage brands).

Expected synergies

• Revenue: expanded distribution, improved shelf placement, broader channel penetration.
• Cost: procurement scale, logistics efficiencies over time.

Key diligence read-through

• Increased scrutiny around health and gut-benefit claims, which has become a core diligence item in functional beverage M&A.

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Case Study 2 — Keurig Dr Pepper → GHOST (Energy / Performance Lifestyle)

Deal overview

• Announced: October 24, 2024
• Buyer / Target: Keurig Dr Pepper / GHOST
• Deal size: ~$1.65B total value (structured as a staged acquisition; majority stake acquired initially, remainder planned later)
• Primary source:
  
  • Keurig Dr Pepper press release: https://investors.keurigdrpepper.com/news-releases/news-release-details/keurig-dr-pepper-acquire-majority-interest-ghost 
  • Reuters coverage: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/keurig-dr-pepper-buy-majority-stake-energy-drink-maker-ghost-2024-10-24/ 

Strategic rationale

• Expands KDP’s exposure to high-growth energy and performance beverages.
• Uses KDP’s route-to-market and bottling infrastructure to accelerate growth while preserving brand identity.

Multiple paid

• Undisclosed; staged structures typically imply contingent valuation outcomes tied to performance.

Expected synergies

• Distribution expansion and merchandising execution.
• Supply chain and packaging efficiencies at scale.

Integration consideration

• Maintaining brand authenticity while scaling through a large corporate system.

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Case Study 3 — Generous Brands (Butterfly platform) → Health-Ade Kombucha

Deal overview

• Announced: July 22, 2025
• Buyer / Target: Generous Brands (Butterfly Equity portfolio) / Health-Ade Kombucha
• Deal size: $500M
• Primary source:
  
  • Business Wire announcement: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250722005432/en/Generous-Brands-to-Acquire-Health-Ade 
  • Food Dive analysis: https://www.fooddive.com/news/generous-brands-health-ade-kombucha-acquisition/ 

Strategic rationale

• Strengthens a refrigerated functional beverage platform that includes cold-pressed and chilled brands.
• Creates operating leverage across cold-chain logistics, manufacturing, and retail execution.

Multiple paid

• Not disclosed (common in sponsor-backed platform transactions).

Expected synergies

• Procurement and freight savings across a multi-brand chilled portfolio.
• Improved utilization of refrigerated manufacturing and distribution assets.

Relevance to cold-pressed juice

• Illustrates the dominant PE playbook: cold-pressed assets are most valuable as part of a scaled refrigerated platform, not as single-brand standalones.

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Case Study 4 — Simply Good Foods → OWYN (Protein RTD / Functional Nutrition)

Deal overview

• Announced: April 29, 2024 (closed June 13, 2024)
• Buyer / Target: Simply Good Foods / OWYN
• Deal size: $280M (cash)
• Primary source:
  
  • Simply Good Foods press release: https://www.simplygoodfoodsco.com/news-releases/news-release-details/simply-good-foods-completes-acquisition-owyn 
  • SEC Form 8-K (deal details and multiples): https://www.sec.gov/ixviewer/documents/2024/simply-good-foods-8k-owyn.htm 

Strategic rationale

• Adds a fast-growing, plant-based protein RTD brand to Simply Good Foods’ functional nutrition portfolio.
• Clear commercial and procurement synergies with existing brands.

Multiple paid (disclosed)

• ~2.3x net sales
• ~13.3x Adjusted EBITDA, including run-rate synergies (as disclosed in filings).

Expected synergies

• Margin expansion via procurement, logistics, and scale efficiencies.
• Accelerated distribution through established retail relationships.

Valuation implication

• Demonstrates how synergy-adjusted EBITDA is often central to valuation justification in wellness beverage deals.

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One-Page Snapshot per Deal

6. Valuation Framework & Modeling

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How Deals Are Priced

Because most cold-pressed and wellness beverage targets are private and often early- to mid-stage, buyers rarely rely on a single valuation method. Instead, pricing is triangulated across three approaches:

1) Trading Comps (Public Market Reference)

• Used primarily as a sanity check rather than a direct pricing mechanism.
  
  
• Relevant comps are usually adjacent (functional beverages, energy, BFY soda, probiotic drinks), not pure cold-pressed juice.
  
  
• Buyers adjust for:
  
  
  
  • scale vs. subscale discounts
    
    
  • margin maturity
    
    
  • liquidity and volatility differences
    
    

Key limitation: public comps rarely reflect refrigerated logistics complexity or short shelf life risk.

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2) Precedent Transactions (Primary Anchor)

• Most influential pricing reference in practice.
  
  
• Buyers focus on:
  
  
  
  • headline enterprise value
    
    
  • any disclosed EV/Revenue or EV/EBITDA references
    
    
  • deal structure (earnouts, staged acquisitions, minority-to-control paths)
    
    

Important nuance

• When EBITDA is thin or negative, buyers default to EV/Revenue.
  
  
• When EBITDA exists (or can be credibly adjusted for synergies), EV/EBITDA becomes gating.
  
  
• Synergy-adjusted EBITDA is often used internally—even if not disclosed publicly.
  
  

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3) Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) – Secondary / Support Tool

• DCFs are typically used as a reasonableness check, not as the price setter.
  
  
• Especially important for:
  
  
  
  • sponsor buyers underwriting a platform exit
    
    
  • strategics justifying a premium internally
    
    

DCF value is highly sensitive to:

• terminal margin assumptions
  
  
• long-term revenue growth durability
  
  
• cold-chain cost normalization
  
  

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Typical Control Premiums

Observed control premiums in wellness beverages are highly variable:

• High-growth, culturally relevant brands: premium outcomes driven by scarcity value and strategic urgency.
  
  
• Refrigerated / cold-pressed brands: premiums are earned, not assumed—buyers demand proof of scale economics.
  
  
• Structured deals: earnouts and staged acquisitions are increasingly used to bridge valuation gaps when growth sustainability is uncertain.
  
  

There is no standardized control premium range comparable to large-cap public M&A; premiums are implicitly embedded in headline EVs rather than explicitly quoted.

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Key Model Drivers (What Actually Moves Value)

Across transactions, the following drivers matter far more than abstract multiples:

Revenue Drivers

• Velocity (units/store/week) — the single most important KPI
  
  
• Repeat purchase rate and cohort behavior
  
  
• Distribution quality, not just count (e.g., national grocery vs. low-quality doors)
  
  
• Promo dependency and elasticity
  
  

Margin Drivers

• Gross margin trajectory, especially:
  
  
  
  • co-manufacturing vs. owned production
    
    
  • spoilage and shelf-life management
    
    
  • ingredient and packaging exposure
    
    
• Freight and cold-chain costs as a % of revenue
  
  

Operating Leverage

• Ability to scale SG&A below revenue growth
  
  
• Marketing efficiency improvements at scale
  
  
• Shared services leverage in platform strategies
  
  

Risk Adjustments

• Health/functional claims substantiation
  
  
• Regulatory or litigation exposure
  
  
• Customer concentration (single retailer or club channel)
  
  
• Refrigerated working capital intensity
  
  

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Example Modeling Assumptions (Illustrative, Non-Advisory)

Below is a typical internal modeling lens buyers apply when underwriting a cold-pressed or refrigerated wellness beverage asset:

Key takeaway: buyers underwrite margin credibility, not just top-line ambition.

Sample DCF Input Summary

Sensitivity Analysis Table

7. Trends & Strategic Themes

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This section highlights the most actionable sector-specific shifts shaping Cold-Pressed Juice / Wellness Beverage strategy, valuation, and M&A underwriting into 2025–26. It reflects observed market behavior (strategics + sponsors) and key external drivers—not investment advice.

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Sector-Specific Shifts

1) “Functional” is winning, but claims are being re-priced as risk

Wellness beverages continue to lean into gut health / immunity / “better-for-you” positioning, but acquirers are increasingly treating claims substantiation as a core diligence and valuation variable.

• The Poppi settlement tied to “gut healthy” marketing illustrates the category’s litigation/consumer protection sensitivity and why buyers are now underwriting claim language risk, labeling discipline, and scientific substantiation more heavily (including how it may affect marketing copy and future growth). (ABC News, EatingWell)

M&A implication: Expect more use of earnouts / staged ownership / indemnities around marketing and regulatory exposure, and greater scrutiny of “health halo” CAC efficiency.

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2) GLP-1-driven behavior shifts are changing what “wellness” means

GLP-1 medications are influencing consumption: lower overall intake, but higher demand for protein-forward, low sugar, “easy-to-tolerate” nutrition formats. That is directly supportive of:

• protein RTD / nutrition shakes
  
  
• lower-sugar functional beverages
  
  
• portion-appropriate formats (shots, mini smoothies, etc.)
  
  

Mainstream coverage and industry analysis point to product reformulation and repositioning across CPG and foodservice toward protein and reduced sugar patterns linked to GLP-1 usage. (Food & Wine, KPMG, Dairy Processing)

Cold-pressed read-through: Cold-pressed brands that migrate from “cleanse” toward daily functional utility (protein add-ons, fiber/gut support with defensible language, hydration) are more aligned with where buyer attention is moving.

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3) Refrigerated economics are pushing the market toward platforms

Refrigerated/cold-pressed categories remain structurally challenged by:

• cold-chain and freight cost intensity
  
  
• spoilage and short shelf life
  
  
• promo/trade spend pressure
  
  
• retailer margin demands
  
  

Multiple market analyses emphasize that continued growth often requires cost-down innovation and better supply chain efficiency—reinforcing why scaled operators and platforms tend to have a structural advantage. (CoherentMI, Mordor Intelligence)

M&A implication: Sponsors and strategics increasingly favor platform-ready assets (repeatable ops, disciplined SKU rationalization, scalable co-man footprint) over passion brands with fragile unit economics.

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4) Format innovation: “juice” is broadening into adjacent need-states

Cold-pressed has matured as a standalone “cleanse” idea, but wellness beverage growth is being captured by adjacent formats:

• functional sodas (prebiotic positioning)
  
  
• kombucha and refrigerated fermented beverages
  
  
• hydration and “better-for-you” refreshment
  
  
• specialized nutrition / meal-replacement adjacencies
  
  

Industry coverage and category reports highlight ongoing growth in refrigerated RTD segments and kombucha as part of functional beverage expansion. (Beverage Marketing Corporation, Intel Market Research)

M&A implication: Buyers are underwriting brands based on repeat daily occasions and velocity stability, not “event-driven” cleanse spikes.

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Emerging Models

A) Hybrid growth models: DTC + retail + creator-driven demand

The most scalable wellness brands are building a content + community demand engine that supports retail velocity. M&A diligence is increasingly focused on:

• sustainability of social-driven acquisition (paid vs organic)
  
  
• customer concentration by platform
  
  
• brand safety / claim compliance in influencer messaging
  
  

Deal read-through: If growth is dependent on aggressive claims, that can become a valuation haircut even if top-line is strong (reinforced by the Poppi claims settlement dynamic). (ABC News, EatingWell)

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B) Ops modernization: shelf-life, packaging, and cold-chain optimization

For cold-pressed and refrigerated functional, winners are those who can:

• extend shelf life without compromising “clean label” perception
  
  
• optimize packaging and freight cube
  
  
• reduce spoilage via forecasting and retailer execution
  
  

Market commentary on cost reduction and process innovation as a growth lever supports the importance of operational modernization in the sub-sector. (CoherentMI, Mordor Intelligence)

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Antitrust / Regulatory Themes

1) Health-claim scrutiny is the near-term “regulatory” theme that matters most

In practice, for wellness beverages, the biggest near-term regulatory swing factor is less antitrust and more:

• marketing claims language
  
  
• consumer protection / class actions
  
  
• labeling substantiation expectations
  
  

The Poppi settlement is a tangible example of how claim language can create legal and financial exposure, influencing how brands market “functional” benefits. (ABC News, EatingWell)

2) Antitrust is not the primary constraint—unless deals become mega-consolidation

Most transactions in cold-pressed/wellness beverages are still too fragmented to be classic antitrust flashpoints. That said, if very large strategics consolidate a category leader in a narrow segment, review risk can rise—but it’s not currently the dominant underwriting variable in this niche.

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Expert POV: Forward-Looking Commentary (Non-Advisory)

Where we think buyers will “pay up”

• Brands with repeatable velocity and strong retailer execution
  
  
• Credible evidence of a margin pathway under refrigerated economics
  
  
• “Functional” positioning that is defensible and compliant (less legal risk)
  
  
• Portfolios that map to GLP-1-aligned behaviors (protein, low sugar, tolerability) (Food & Wine, KPMG)
  
  

Where valuations are likely to be discounted

• High growth driven by marketing claims that could be curtailed or litigated (ABC News, EatingWell)
  
  
• Subscale cold-pressed brands without a clear cold-chain cost solution (CoherentMI, Mordor Intelligence)
  
  
• Promo-dependent velocity without strong repeat or cohort durability

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Timeline of Trend Emergence

8. 2025–26 Market Outlook

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Expected M&A drivers

1) Lower “friction” for deals vs. 2023–24, especially in middle market

• Recent survey-based reporting suggests middle-market M&A optimism into 2026, with expectations for higher volume tied to economic growth, lower interest rates, and valuations—and PE confidence rising materially by late 2025. (Reuters)
• Separately, 2025 global M&A was buoyed by mega-deals and capital availability, with market participants signaling a pipeline into 2026. (Reuters)

2) Portfolio reshaping by strategics (buy, build, and “prune”)

• Large consumer companies are increasingly treating M&A as a tool for portfolio modernization—targeting categories with stronger growth/consumer resonance, and divesting slower-growth assets. PwC’s 2026 CPG & retail deals outlook explicitly frames 2026 as an environment shaped by portfolio reshaping and changing consumer behavior. (PwC)

3) Functional beverage “white space” remains a priority—while claim risk gets underwritten

• Functional and “better-for-you” beverages continue to be called out by lenders/advisors as a key attention area in food & beverage dealmaking. (BMO)
• However, acquirers are more explicitly pricing marketing/claims risk and will lean harder on structure (earnouts, staged acquisitions, indemnities) when growth is dependent on aggressive benefit claims (a theme echoed broadly in market commentary).
  
  

4) Refrigerated economics favor platforms (cold-chain scale wins)

• Cold-pressed / refrigerated beverage outcomes often hinge on cold-chain logistics, spoilage control, manufacturing utilization, and retailer execution—pushing buyers toward platform logic (multi-brand chilled portfolios) rather than single-brand bets.
  
  

5) GLP-1 behavior shift continues to influence what “wellness” means

• AlixPartners highlights consumption shifts among GLP-1 users away from high-sugar categories; their published summary notes disruption across beverages including juices. (AlixPartners)

Implication: Expect more M&A attention toward protein-forward, low-sugar, “daily utility” beverages and away from sugar-heavy or “occasional cleanse” positioning.

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Expected headwinds

1) Valuation gap persists for subscale refrigerated brands

• When growth is present but margins are fragile, buyers tend to demand either (a) a clearer path to margin normalization or (b) structured consideration to bridge the risk.
  
  

2) Promotional intensity and retailer economics

• Retailers are selective with refrigerated space; promo dependency and shelf execution quality matter more than “door count.”
  
  

3) Cost of capital remains a gating factor for leveraged/platform deals

• Even if rates ease, lenders remain focused on cash-flow visibility, working capital discipline, and downside cases—especially in refrigerated categories.
  
  

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Buy-side vs. sell-side expectations (how processes are likely to differ)

Buy-side (strategic + sponsor)

• Will prioritize targets with:
  
  
  
  • repeatable velocity and tight SKU architecture
    
    
  • defensible functional positioning (lower claim risk)
    
    
  • credible cold-chain cost controls
    
    
  • synergy pathways (distribution, procurement, manufacturing utilization)
    
    

Sell-side

• Will emphasize:
  
  
  
  • premium “white space” narrative (functional + wellness)
    
    
  • proof of unit economics and margin trajectory
    
    
  • clean diligence package on claims, ingredients, labeling, and quality systems
    
    
  • multiple credible buyer types (strategic + sponsor) to tighten competitive tension

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Funnel of Deal Types by Strategic Priority

Outlook Grid (Short / Mid / Long Term)

9. Appendices & Citations

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A) Deal Table Appendix (selected, wellness / refrigerated-adjacent)

Source list by report component (hyperlinked)

Deal facts (announce dates, values, structure)

• PepsiCo ↔ poppi press release: https://www.pepsico.com/newsroom/press-releases/2025/pepsico-to-acquire-poppi PepsiCo
• Celsius ↔ Alani Nu press release: https://ir.celsiusholdingsinc.com/news/news-details/2025/Celsius-Holdings-to-Acquire-Alani-Nu-Creating-a-Leading-Better-For-You-Functional-Lifestyle-Platform/default.aspx Celsius Holdings
• KDP ↔ GHOST press release: https://news.keurigdrpepper.com/2024-10-24-Keurig-Dr-Pepper-to-Acquire-Disruptive-Energy-Drink-Business-GHOST Media | Keurig Dr Pepper
• Reuters (KDP ↔ GHOST stake/value/structure): https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/keurig-dr-pepper-buy-energy-drink-maker-ghost-over-1-bln-wsj-reports-2024-10-24/ Reuters
• Generous Brands ↔ Health-Ade announcement: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250722018506/en/Generous-Brands-to-Acquire-Health-Ade-Kombucha-Doubling-Down-on-Premium-High-Growth-Functional-Beverages Business Wire
• Danone ↔ Kate Farms press release (PDF): https://www.danone.com/content/dam/corp/global/danonecom/investors/en-all-publications/2025/pressreleases/prdanone120525.pdf Danone
• Reuters (Danone ↔ Kate Farms): https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/danone-acquires-us-plant-based-organic-formula-maker-kate-farms-2025-05-12/ Reuters
• Simply Good Foods ↔ OWYN completion: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/06/13/2898637/0/en/The-Simply-Good-Foods-Company-Completes-Acquisition-of-Only-What-You-Need-OWYN.html GlobeNewswire
• Suja Life ↔ Slice announcement: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240528579747/en/ Business Wire
• Reuters (AB InBev ↔ BeatBox): https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/ab-inbev-acquire-85-stake-beverage-maker-beatbox-490-million-2025-12-05/ Reuters

Market context / outlook signals

• Reuters (Celsius ↔ Alani Nu deal context): https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/celsius-buy-rival-energy-drink-brand-alani-nu-18-billion-wsj-reports-2025-02-20/ Reuters

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Methodology (how this report was assembled)

1) Transaction set definition

• Included announced/closed transactions in wellness beverages that are either:
  
  
  
  • directly refrigerated/cold-chain (kombucha/cold-pressed adjacencies), or
    
    
  • valuation “tone-setters” for BFY functional beverages (functional soda, energy/wellness, nutrition RTD).
    
    

2) Value and structure treatment

• “Deal value” uses company press releases and Reuters as primary references.
  
  
• Where values include tax assets/benefits and earnouts, both headline and cited net pricing are recorded when available (e.g., poppi; Alani Nu). (PepsiCo, Celsius Holdings)
• Staged structures are flagged explicitly (e.g., GHOST). (Reuters, Media | Keurig Dr Pepper)

3) Multiples and modeling exhibits

• Where financial multiples are disclosed publicly, they are attributed to issuer releases/filings; otherwise, multiples are treated as not disclosed.
  
  
• DCF inputs and sensitivities presented are illustrative templates (format and common underwriting levers), not forecasts or recommendations.
  
  

Non-advisory notice: This report is for informational research and formatting purposes and does not constitute investment advice.

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